SpaceX shares have soared following their blockbuster IPO debut, rising as much as 67% above the $135 offer price and pushing the stock to $225 before recent pullbacks.
Despite the strong early performance, attention is now shifting toward the company’s staggered lockup schedule, which could introduce significant new supply into a tightly held market.
The stock’s early rally has been driven in part by supply-demand imbalances, with only about 639 million shares currently available for trading out of more than 13 billion outstanding shares.
That scarcity has helped amplify volatility and push valuations higher in the immediate post-listing period.
However, analysts and market participants are now focusing on how upcoming unlock events may change that dynamic.
Staggered unlock schedule set to increase supply
Unlike traditional IPOs that typically impose a 180-day lockup period, SpaceX has implemented a staggered release structure for insider and early investor shares.
According to the IPO framework, share unlocks begin after the company’s first quarterly earnings report, expected in late July or early August.
At that point, 20% of the stock becomes available for sale, with the potential for up to 30% if the stock remains above $175.
Additional tranches follow, including 7% releases on Aug. 20, Sept. 9, Oct. 9, and Oct. 24.
A further 28% unlocks after second-quarter earnings, with the final portion released after Dec. 8, marking the end of the 180-day period.
The structure is designed to disperse the selling from pre IPO shareholders, rather than allowing a single wave of stock to hit the market.
However, the increased supply of shares can still weigh on price action.
Trading research firm AgentSmyth recently observed elevated activity in September put options on SpaceX, suggesting traders are positioning for potential downside moves as additional shares become available for trading following the company’s first quarterly earnings report.
Historical precedents from other IPOs underscore the risk.
Shares of Rivian fell 21% around its lockup expiration in 2022, while Reddit also saw declines ahead of its performance-based lockup release before later stabilizing.
Trading dynamics and index demand may offset pressure
Despite concerns around supply, several factors could counterbalance potential downside pressure.
SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 under a fast-entry rule, allowing index inclusion after just 15 days of trading.
Analysts expect this to trigger $7 billion to $10 billion in forced buying from passive funds tracking the benchmark.
Additionally, trading activity in options and ETFs has already begun influencing price action.
The debut of stock options has created hedging flows that can amplify upward momentum, while leveraged ETF products such as the Direxion SpaceX Bull 2x are expected to generate additional forced buying.
Long-term outlook hinges on fundamentals beyond lockups
While short-term volatility is likely to be shaped by staggered unlocks and trading flows, longer-term valuation will depend on earnings and growth expectations.
Expectations remain high, including Musk’s previously stated $1 trillion revenue target by 2031.
For now, however, investors are weighing whether rising share supply from lockup expirations will cool momentum in a stock that has already experienced extreme early gains and rapid shifts in sentiment.
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