Alberta separation question creating uncertainty for provincial investment: ‘Not good for us’

Businesses and economists say the proposed Alberta separatism referendum question is creating uncertainty that could hurt investment in the province.

Some Alberta companies say the political climate has already prompted concern from investors and, in at least one case, consideration of moving operations elsewhere.

Anthony Nelson, co-founder of 2S Water, said his investors began raising questions shortly after Premier Danielle Smith unveiled the referendum question last week.

“I had a number of investors who said, ‘OK, what’s your plan for getting out of Alberta?’” Nelson said.

The Oct. 19 referendum will include a question on whether Alberta should remain in Canada or if the province should hold a binding referendum on separation. Nine other questions announced in February deal with immigration and constitutional matters.

Nelson said the uncertainty has led him to consider relocating the company to British Columbia or Ontario in order to maintain investor confidence.

“The startup community attracts a lot of investors from Eastern Canada and the U.S., and those investors are concerned,” Nelson said.

“They’ve put money into this place, they’re looking for a good return on investment and now all of a sudden we’ve got a premier who’s trying to create chaos.

“It’s not good for us.”

Municipal leaders say they are also fielding questions and attempting to reassure organizations wary of the potential economic impact.

Edmonton Mayor Andrew Knack said businesses should play a role in the public discussion.

“I do think it’s going to be important for businesses to speak up in this discussion, to remind people about the economic reality,” Knack said.

University of Alberta economist Chetan Dave said political uncertainty tied to separation discussions can dampen business confidence, particularly among larger firms.

“Businesses do not like — especially big businesses — this kind of political uncertainty,” Dave said.

He added even the prospect of a referendum can have consequences for investment decisions — regardless of the outcome.

“Even the threat of this kind of separation is going to cause businesses to pull back.”

More ambiguity means investment dollars stay on the sidelines, projects get more expensive and delays become more likely, said Deborah Yedlin, president and CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce.

“Uncertainty is the enemy of investment, and we’re now introduced to new elements of uncertainty,” she said last Friday.

The referendum news came a week after Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney resolved one of the last remaining sticking points in the energy accord they signed late last year: an agreement on how to implement an increase in the industrial carbon price.

The memorandum of understanding lays out conditions that could see a new Alberta-West Coast pipeline built to enable more bitumen exports to Asia.

“We don’t need this,” Yedlin said of the separatism debate ratcheting up just as the regulatory logjam holding back resource development shows signs of loosening after a decade.

Yedlin said there’s a concern the rest of the country doesn’t appreciate the gravity of the situation, and that businesses based elsewhere in Canada aren’t immune to the risk of separation.

“It has to be something that we take seriously as a country and as a province because this is not worth breaking up the country for.”

Candace Laing, head of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said the country has already been contending with economic costs beyond its control while also recognizing the need to remove self-imposed barriers.

“Prolonged uncertainty around constitutional or political separation brings real risks for investor confidence, economic growth and Canada’s global competitiveness at exactly the wrong time,” she said.

“There are legitimate concerns being raised in Alberta around competitiveness, market access and economic opportunity. Canada’s democratic system is strong enough to address those concerns constructively while continuing to build a stronger, more competitive national economy together.”

The Alberta government has emphasized efforts to strengthen the province’s economy, despite the investment concerns.

Earlier this month, Jobs, Economy, Trade and Immigration Minister Joseph Schow said Alberta is expanding investment in sectors including aerospace, defence and advanced manufacturing, while also seeking new export markets.

In a statement, Schow’s press secretary said Alberta continues to offer a stable environment for investment.

“Despite global pressures, Alberta continues to lead the nation in economic growth, investment attraction and job creation — a testament to the confidence businesses have in our province,” the statement said.

— with files from Lauren Krugel, The Canadian Press

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