Heads down, bums up and helmets back on.
Just when investors thought the Middle East might finally be settling down, President Donald Trump declared the Iran ceasefire dead and we welcomed back volatility to an already toppy market.
The latest flare-up began after Iranian forces struck three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a fresh wave of US air strikes on military infrastructure across Iran. Tehran wasted little time returning fire, launching missiles and drones towards US-aligned targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, sending insurers scrambling to reprice shipping risk through the world’s most important energy chokepoint.
Wall Street didn’t enjoy the surprise. The Dow shed more than 600 points at one stage as traders dumped risk and rushed back into energy and defence stocks. Brent crude surged back above US$80 (A$122) a barrel as fears grew that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted again, wiping out much of last week’s high hopes of an oil market returning to normal.
War, what is it good for… propping up an economy?
For all the diplomatic talk, the market has become increasingly sceptical that a lasting peace is anywhere close. And why would it be? The US is making money hand over fist as the world’s largest oil and gas exporter, as oil prices jumped more than 10 per cent on the back of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
American crude exports have climbed from roughly four million barrels a day before the conflict to more than 5.6 million barrels a day in recent months, leaving Washington in the enviable position of benefiting from stronger energy prices while simultaneously policing the shipping lane that largely determines them.
Unfortunately, extended war cycles have long been a feature of economic survival. Today, the Western financial system is buckling under the weight of decades of debt accumulation since WWII. Governments have borrowed beyond their means, central banks are losing their grip on inflation, interest rates are climbing and fiscal options are running thin. Against that backdrop, war becomes an awfully convenient distraction from mounting debt, slowing economies and increasingly fragile financial markets.
All things commodities were also back on the boil this week, as copper continues to surge, gold held and Australia’s major miners hung onto hopes iron ore has found a floor, after shedding nearly 12 per cent in the past two months.
As such, our surprisingly healthy Runners list was all things junior resources. However, the only thing that runs more than a sector on the burst is a sector on a bounce. And with biotechs making a quiet revival after nearly two years of bloodshed, yet another Aussie biotech has taken out first place this week.
ARGENT BIOPHARMA LTD (ASX: RGT)
Up 206% (3.6c – 11c)
Taking out Runners of the Week is Argent BioPharma, which rocketed after orchestrating a clever deal with NYSE-listed Splash Beverage Group for the exclusive global licensing of its CannEpil epilepsy therapy.
The agreement provides a clear pathway for Argent to commercialise its pharmaceutical-grade cannabinoid treatment for drug-resistant epilepsy. The condition affects around a third of all epilepsy patients worldwide and represents one of the largest unmet needs in neurology.
The transaction delivers Argent an upfront consideration of US$5.5 million (A$7.9 million). However, the real genius of the deal lies in its structure. The payment will be satisfied through the forgiveness of approximately US$5.5 million (A$7.9 million) in outstanding convertible notes held by Mercer Street Global Opportunity Fund in exchange for equity in Splash. Upon completion, the Mercer facility will be totally extinguished, wiping Argent’s principal secured liability from its balance sheet and removing a material financing overhang that has weighed on the company.
While Florida-based Splash gains the exclusive global commercialisation rights, Argent has smartly ring-fenced its core assets.
Argent will retain ownership of all existing and future intellectual property related to CannEpil, in addition to its manufacturing know-how and associated regulatory assets. Better yet, it will continue to participate in the long-term commercial upside through a perpetual royalty equal to 15 per cent of all net revenues generated from future CannEpil sales.
The company also retains the primary right to manufacture the product through its existing EU-compliant infrastructure, locking in a potential future revenue stream from supply agreements.
Under the deal, Splash will now shoulder the financial burden of development and regulatory approval, aimed initially at the lucrative US market. The agreement sets out clear timelines, with Splash required to initiate a phase one clinical trial within 24 months, a phase two trial within 48 months and, following successful trials, to submit a New Drug Application to the FDA.
For Argent, it’s a deal that unlocks the value of one of its most advanced assets, cleans up the balance sheet, while preserving the long-term blue-sky.
PEREGRINE GOLD LTD (ASX: PGD)
Up 109% (11c – 23c)
Surging into second place is Pilbara gold hopeful Peregrine Gold, which finished the week strongly after revealing an extensive stretch of gold-bearing paleo gravels at its Newman gold project in Western Australia.
The unusual discovery at the newly named Capricorn prospect extends for up to four kilometres and has emerged from a program of bulk sampling and follow-up geochemical work on its gravel grabs.
The company says its testing confirmed widespread gold particles and coarse gold in samples within the shallow gravel system, prompting it to peg a 202-hectare mining lease application over the area.
As if the discovery wasn’t already turning heads, the new application borders special prospecting licences controlled by legendary dealmaker and major Peregrine shareholder Mark Creasy.
According to management, the find has highlighted a potentially new zone of near-surface mineralisation that could provide a low-cost pathway to early-stage gold extraction.
The theory is that such a prominent and widespread zone of shallow gold is likely being fed by a larger, undiscovered bedrock source nearby. The company says it is highly unusual for such a large spatial dispersion of gold in gravel not to have a primary source nearby. It now expects to hunt for that source as it evaluates the paleo gravel system.
While further assays are pending, the promising results so far have been enough to get the geologist’s juices flowing and to push for a mining lease application. Peregrine says it will now undertake additional bulk sampling to properly assess the grade ahead of dry-blowing tests, a potential early-stage, tried-and-tested production technique.
NEWPEAK MINERALS LTD (ASX: NPM)
Up 107% (1.5c – 3.1c)
Taking out bronze this week is South American explorer Newpeak Minerals, which surged after the very first drill hole at its Las Opeñas gold project in Argentina intersected what appears to be a giant-scale gold-zinc-silver system in the prolific, tier-1 address.
The drill bit was sunk to test for large-scale, gold-dominant polymetallic mineralisation and it appears to have hit the mark in spectacular fashion.
The first hole delivered a monster 663-metre intercept grading 0.41 grams per tonne (g/t) gold equivalent from 127m, comprising 0.16g/t gold, 0.65 per cent zinc and 4.53g/t silver – a great result for a first-pass attempt.
Better still, the hit included a richer 84m zone grading 0.72g/t gold equivalent from just 20m below surface.
Punters piled into the Latin American junior on Monday’s news, with almost a third of Newpeak’s register changing hands, with 102 million shares traded on the day, in the company’s busiest session since 2022.
The company says its broad mineralised interval is interpreted to be a low-sulphidation epithermal system, with disseminated iron and zinc sulphides running throughout the core.
The discovery looks even more compelling given its address in Argentina’s San Juan province, home to giant porphyry deposits including BHP’s multi-billion-dollar Filo del Sol project.
In this part of the Andes, intercepts of this scale have a habit of turning into something far bigger. With assays from the remaining five holes due within the next three to six weeks, Newpeak could be edging towards a maiden resource if the early success continues.
CASPIN RESOURCES LTD (ASX: CPN)
Up 82% (7.7c – 14c)
Rounding out our Runners is critical minerals explorer Caspin Resources, which tacked on 82 per cent after unveiling thick, high-grade intercepts at its Bygoo tin project in New South Wales.
The company received assays from the newly discovered Errol’s Zone, which returned a stellar intercept of 20m at 2.11 per cent tin from 107m, alongside a second, narrower intercept from the same hole of 2m at 1.38 per cent tin from 90m.
Crucially, the Errols Zone sits outside the project’s existing Kelpie mineral resource, which currently stands at 3.94 million tonnes at 0.50 per cent tin for 19,300 tonnes of contained metal.
Caspin says it expects the high-grade hits from Errol’s to be a notable contributor to an updated resource estimate for the project, which is scheduled for late in the September quarter.
Additional drilling has already been completed to test the dip and plunge extensions of the new zone, with plenty of assays in the pipeline.
Tin has quietly become one of the mining sector’s hottest commodities. After years languishing in the doldrums, the metal has more than doubled in price in recent years due to the demand for electrification.
That’s exactly the opportunity Caspin Resources is chasing, having stitched together a commanding 1500-square-kilometre landholding surrounding the historic Ardlethan mine in New South Wales, once one of Australia’s richest tin producers.
The company says its latest discovery at Errols offers compelling evidence that Bygoo is evolving beyond a single-deposit story into a broader, multi-target tin district. Management believes significant potential remains in the mineralised structures to the north and south of the core Kelpie deposit.
The Moss prospect, just 1km north of Kelpie, has been identified as a high-priority drill target with geophysical and geochemical signatures analogous to the existing deposit.
Meanwhile, the Ardlethan East prospect has already returned multiple tin anomalies and high-grade rock chips of up to 3.78 per cent tin.
Together, these targets strengthen the view that Kelpie may represent only the first discovery in a much larger mineralised system at Bygoo.
Is your ASX-listed company doing something interesting? Contact: matt.birney@wanews.com.au