Has there been an increase in big earthquakes worldwide this year? – National

Experts say despite the “big earthquakes“ that have recently made headlines in countries like Indonesia and Venezuela, there has not been an above-average rate of large quakes in 2026.

A 7.7 magnitude earthquake hit Indonesia’s capital on Saturday, the 11th earthquake above a magnitude of seven this year and fifth since June, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). There have also been 34 earthquakes with a magnitude between six and 6.9 this year.

Roughly 16 major earthquakes are typically expected by the USGS in any given year, which includes “15 earthquakes in the magnitude seven range and one earthquake magnitude eight or greater.”

The USGS measures a magnitude 5.3 as a “moderate” earthquake, and a 6.3 as a “strong” earthquake. Earthquakes Canada cites earthquakes between seven and 7.9 magnitude as “major.” Earthquakes that reach magnitude six and above tend to cause large-scale damage.

“We’re three-quarters of the way through the year; we’ve had 11 earthquakes when the average would suggest 12,” said John Cassidy, earthquake seismologist with Natural Resources Canada.

“We’re just about on average.”

Twenty-three major hurricanes hit in 2010, the highest total in 26 years. There have also been an average of 14 seven to 7.9 magnitude earthquakes since 2000.

There are an average of roughly 20,000 earthquakes worldwide each year, equalling approximately 55 per day, the National Earthquake Information Center says.

The “primary driver” of large earthquakes is “the movement of tectonic plates,” according to Cassidy.

“For the big earthquakes, what really drives those is the movement of tectonic plates. And in the case of Indonesia, in the cases of Canada’s west coast, we have ocean plates that are being pushed beneath continent, we have a collision of plates. These tectonic plates move typically five or six or seven centimetres each year, roughly how fast your fingernails grow.

“It’s not very fast, but over a hundred years, it represents five or six or seven metres of movement, which is a big earthquake. That’s the equivalent of a magnitude seven or larger earthquake.” 

In Canada, there have been 2,819 earthquakes this year, according to data from Earthquakes Canada.

Robert Shcherbakov, an earth sciences professor at Western University, said the “location” and “depth of an earthquake” contribute to how intense an earthquake is.

“[Depth] means typically those earthquakes which occur pretty close to the surface, they can create more shaking on the ground and then that can result in more damage to the structures, buildings, and so forth,” he said. “It also depends on the quality of the buildings.

“This comparison — say, between Venezuela or Japan — in Japan they have much better quality of buildings and even the old ones, they are retrofitted properly and so it means they can withstand shaking much better than, say, in other parts of the world.”

On June 24, a 7.2 magnitude quake hit Venezuela’s northern coast, followed by a magnitude 7.5 just 39 seconds later, leaving more than 6,000 dead. A 7.1 magnitude earthquake hit Japan’s southern main island of Kyushu on July 28, killing 38.

In addition, a 7.4 magnitude earthquake shook Colombia on Aug. 10, leaving nearly 300 dead.

Despite the intensity of the damage from some of the quakes, this year’s earthquake count is “a normal year from this point of view on the moment,” according to Shcherbakov.

Regardless, the intensity of the earthquakes hitting is still notable to Cassidy.

“I think that’s the biggest difference this year is not the numbers, but just the fact that these earthquakes are close to major population centres and vulnerable areas, and we’ve seen terrible impacts from these earthquakes,” Cassidy said.

“They’ve been particularly devastating earthquakes, very impactful earthquakes.”

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