MUMBAI: India could be heading into a weaker-than-usual monsoon season this year, raising concerns about inflation and the broader economy.
The India Meteorological Department has forecast below-average rainfall for the June to September monsoon period – the first such outlook in three years.
Rainfall is expected to be about 92 per cent of the long-term average, making it the lowest initial monsoon forecast in more than two decades.
EL NINO A KEY FACTOR
One of the main drivers behind the weaker outlook is El Nino, a climate pattern linked to the warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean that typically weakens India’s southwest monsoon.
The monsoon season is a crucial part of India’s climate system, delivering nearly 70 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall.
This water is vital for agriculture, reservoirs and groundwater replenishment.
About half of India’s population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods.