PN-BN PARTNERSHIP FOR GE16?
Analysts say that a strategic electoral pact between BN and PN could heavily reshape Malaysia’s political landscape.
Independent political analyst Zaharuddin Sani Sabri told CNA that BN’s current partnership with PH has exposed ideological and factional strains within the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), with many grassroots members uneasy about cooperating with PH’s multiracial platform. UMNO is a BN lynchpin party.
He said that PN is a more “natural ideological partner” for BN, appealing to conservative Malay-Muslim sentiments, while easing internal tensions and restoring the latter’s relevance within this segment.
Within the PN, Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) serves as its main component party. UMNO and PAS are the biggest Malay-based parties in Malaysia.
“Whether under the banners of BN or PN, Malay-majority constituencies are increasingly converging around parties perceived to prioritise ethnic security, religious identity and economic protection. This is no longer simply about ideology. It is about political ownership,” said Zaharuddin.
He added that Malaysia’s fractured political landscape, electoral arithmetic, and historical precedent all point toward the rationality of their cooperation into GE16.
“Their relationship is transactional, but transactions often outlast ideological marriages when the stakes are existential,” he said.
Malaysia’s parliament consists of 222 seats. A simple majority of 112 seats is needed to form a government.
According to the Ilham Centre, out of the 165 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia, 93 have a Malay population exceeding 70 per cent, 45 have a Malay population between 50 per cent and 70 per cent while 14 are Chinese-majority seats, and the remaining 13 being mixed seats.
Hisommudin said that a simulation by his research firm of a potential BN-PN pact could see the two win 122 seats in Peninsular Malaysia alone, on the assumption that their supporters would vote for each other’s candidates. Meanwhile, PH is forecast to only win 43 seats if it were to contest on its own.
In Peninsular Malaysia at the 15th general elections, BN and PN won 94 seats, while PH won 71 seats, with all three coalitions having fielded candidates in those contests.
While questions would inevitably arise over who should secure the prime ministerial position if the pact won, Hisommudin believes that PN, particularly PAS, was prepared to cede that position to BN.