Last month, a tenancy advocacy group published a report calling for rent caps that made a range of sensational claims, including that without intervention, Perth metropolitan rents would rise to $1800 by 2031.
There is no denying the rental market is extremely constrained. The vacancy rate is below 1.7 per cent according to REIWA data and rental affordability is at record lows, according to REIA data. We understand advocacy groups’ desire to improve conditions for tenants, but calls for change need to be backed by sound evidence.
For example, the claim that rents would rise to $1800 is highly alarming and headline grabbing, but is it likely? The authors of the report would have had to assume rents would increase by at least 21 per cent a year for the next five years to reach this price. This isn’t realistic. According to REIWA data, Perth median rent prices have only seen this level of annual growth once in the last 20 years. The annual rate of growth in the last two years has been below 10 per cent.
And when you use data, you need to compare like with like. The report claimed rent prices had increased 132 per cent since 2021. However, it compared the rent for all private dwellings, which may include caravans, occupied tents and houseboats, on the 2021 Census night with 2025 and 2026 data from SQM Research combining advertised rent prices for three-bedroom houses and two-bedroom units. These are two completely different datasets and methodologies and therefore are not an accurate representation of changes in the market.
Early this year, the same advocacy group published another sensational report noting there were more than 10,400 unhosted entire-home Airbnb properties listed in Western Australia compared to about 3700 private rental listings. It painted the picture that short-stay accommodation was the cause of the rental market’s woes and generated a lot of outraged commentary.
However, during the report’s research timeframe, there were more than 225,000 long-term rental properties in WA. Comparing advertised rental listings at one point in time with short-stay listings is extremely misleading. Long-term rentals are advertised when they become available, often once every few years, while short-stay properties are advertised continuously.
We can all agree the rental market needs to improve, but reform needs to be based on sound evidence. Recent experience shows us that policy changes, however well meaning, can have a negative impact on the market and even harm those they seek to help. Anyone calling for change, including REIWA, needs to make sure the data they provide decision-makers is accurate and not misleading.