SpaceX (SPCX) Q3 2026 earnings report: Live updates

Wall Street is sounding bullish on SpaceX ahead of its third-quarter earnings report, to be delivered after the bell on Tuesday.

Mizuho has an outperform rating on the stock and a $200 price target, per a Monday note from analyst Brett Linzey. Shares were trading around $148 as of 10:45 a.m. on Tuesday.

“AI is the largest swing factor for 3Q26 revenue and EBITDA. Consensus has AI revenue of $6.30B (+146% Q/Q from $2.56B) and AI adj. EBITDA of $3.32B (from $1.15B),” he wrote.

Analysts are expecting some conversation about deals or competitive plays with cable and telecom companies following SpaceX’s acquisition of low-band spectrum earlier this month.

“We expect initial strategic commentary centers around Connectivity and how SPCX can partner/compete its way into global markets, although we think low-band distribution becomes a meaningful intelligence lever over time,” Colin Canfield at Cantor Fitzgerald wrote in a Monday note. He has a price target of $246 and an overweight rating on the stock.

Oppenheimer’s expectations are more measured. The bank thinks the quarter will be “in-line” with “guidance reiterated.”

“Industry subscriber growth is slowing with limited room for pricing action, so focus is shifting from net adds and service revenue growth toward cost-cutting using AI, and lower subsidies/churn,” Timothy Horan at Oppenheimer told clients in a Tuesday note. He expects “more rational incumbent behavior” from SpaceX’s competitors.

–Tobias Burns

Musk said Monday that he’ll give every child in the U.S. one of his SpaceX shares next year.

With 72 million children under 18 in the U.S. as of July 1, 2025, according to official census data, that would amount a giveaway of about $10.5 billion worth of shares as of the current price.

Musk, the world’s richest person with a net worth of over $900 billion, said in a post on X that, “This will be the first of many,” without providing further details. However, when it comes to fulfilling his philanthropic promises, Musk has a spotty track record.

—Ari Levy

A military tier of Starlink, marketed as Starshield, has drawn scrutiny of late as restrictions on the system in Ukraine hindered the country’s ability to defend itself against intensifying attacks by Russia.

Ukrainian officials said SpaceX and the Trump administration restricted Starshield without warning last week, causing Ukraine’s military forces to lose control of drones moving over 100 miles per hour, as the craft were relying on Starshield for connectivity at those speeds.

Musk said in a post on X that any changes to Starshield should be attributed to the U.S. government and President Donald Trump, though Trump later denied he ordered any such restrictions.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday that the restraints remained in place over the weekend.

Investors, meanwhile, have poured capital into potential Starlink competitors, including Eutelsat.

—Lora Kolodny

After acquiring xAI in February with its data centers in and around Memphis, Tennessee, SpaceX struck lucrative cloud computing agreements, establishing a new revenue stream.

Deals with Google, Anthropic and Reflection AI, as well as an unnamed customer revealed by SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen at an event last month, amount to potentially tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue for the company.

SpaceX is reportedly in talks to raise up to $40 billion to buy more Nvidia chips to support its AI ambitions.

Investors are looking for updates around this business for SpaceX as it seeks to monetize its AI capacity.

—Lora Kolodny

Ahead of earnings, investors are invited to submit questions for the call. One entry that got a lot of upvotes was about timing for a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla, Musk’s automaker.

Musk’s companies have had business and financial relations for years, even sharing personnel and some board members.

Tesla invested $2 billion into xAI, which later converted into shares of SpaceX. The AI unit of SpaceX also spent about $430 million last year on Tesla’s Megapacks, which are battery energy storage systems, and $143 million on Cybertrucks.

With SpaceX hitting the public market in June, speculation about a more permanet tie-up has been swirling. SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell told CNBC ahead of the IPO that a merger “might make Elon’s life a little easier.”

A demo of Tesla’s next-generation Roadster last week stirred up further merger excitement among Musk fans. The new Roadster was developed with SpaceX and incorporates its technology, including cold gas thrusters, to enable the car to launch, hover and flip in mid-air.

—Lora Kolodny