Suyash Desai, a political scientist specialising in China’s defence and foreign policies, said the pace of personnel changes is too fluid to identify clear long-term winners.
“It is very difficult to tell if these will be permanent officers or if there will be changes as we head toward the 2027 Party Congress and the PLA centenary,” he told CNA, citing how changes have been happening on a near-monthly basis.
For Yang of RSIS, the more fundamental question of who ultimately survives Xi’s military rebuild comes down to what the Chinese leader values most.
Operational competence remains important, he said, particularly in a rapidly changing security environment. But Xi has repeatedly shown a willingness to accept institutional disruption in pursuit of political control, Yang added.
“Political reliability comes first. Xi wants officers to be 100% loyal,” he said.
“The PLA must be controlled by loyalists, even if it comes at the cost of losing some competence.”
CONTINUITY – BUT WITH LESS AUTHORITY?
One factor helping the PLA absorb the upheaval is that many of the officers stepping up were already deeply embedded in the units they now appear to be leading, said analysts.
Several were previously deputies or chiefs of staff, giving them familiarity with internal procedures, personnel and operational planning even if they lack the rank or formal authority of their predecessors.
“I think there is real but uneven continuity beneath the upheaval,” said Mei of the RAND Corporation.
She pointed to the institutional experience of several of the emerging officers: Cai came through the army staff system, Zhang Zheng had served across naval headquarters, fleet and theatre roles and commanded the Liaoning aircraft carrier, while Lei was previously Rocket Force chief of staff after an earlier career in the air force.
“That continuity should preserve some staff processes, standing plans, and organisational knowledge. It does not, by itself, replace the accumulated authority, cross-service relationships, and crisis experience of the full generals who were removed,” she said.