In April 2025, the Philippine Coast Guard monitored a Chinese research vessel off Itbayat, saying its unusual movements suggested it was conducting marine scientific research without permission.
Separately, on Jun 1 this year, China’s coast guard announced patrols east of Taiwan in response to Japan-Philippines maritime boundary negotiations, although it did not disclose their precise location.
“In terms of grey-zone tactics, China is likely to continue using its coast guard to assert its presence around the Batanes and stretch the resources of other countries through sustained maritime operations, short of an armed conflict,” RSIS’ Seow said, noting that Chinese maritime activity around Batanes had increased since Marcos took office.
Such pressure could also be aimed at influencing Manila’s decisions in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, Brender said.
“My near-term expectation is that Beijing will try to deter Manila from allowing US forces to use Batanes in a conflict, through diplomatic threats and shows of force at sea,” he said.
HISTORY AND SOVEREIGNTY
Despite increased Chinese maritime activity and the recent academic debate, analysts highlighted that Beijing has not formally challenged Philippine sovereignty over Batanes, and there is no suggestion that it intends to do so.
“Claiming Taiwan does not give China a claim to Batanes. Neither proximity nor cultural ties establish ownership,” said Brender.
Still, the arguments made by the Chinese scholars at the June symposium have raised questions about whether that could change.
Their arguments included interpretations of historical treaties between Spain and the US, claims of Qing dynasty-era administration of Batanes through Taiwan, and cultural and linguistic links between indigenous communities in Batanes and Taiwan’s Orchid Island.