Among the examples he cited was the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union. Despite decades of intense rivalry, ideological competition and nuclear brinkmanship, the two superpowers ultimately avoided direct military conflict.
The key to this was mutual recognition that neither side could survive a nuclear exchange, said Allison.
“The two parties recognised that given that they had equal capabilities for destroying the other, they were going to have to find some way to live together,” he said.
That eventually evolved into a détente – a French term often used to refer to the easing of Cold War tensions from 1967 to 1979.
Allison contrasted that outcome with Europe in 1914, when the rise of Germany challenged British dominance, ultimately leading to World War I.
History shows how “neglect produces bad results” and how “thoughtful policy can do better”, he added.
He suggested that the long-term US-China relationship could resemble the Olympic Games: Intensely competitive, but ultimately peaceful.
Competition itself is not necessarily dangerous, Allison added.
“You and I run faster if we’re running against each other and competing,” he said.
The real test, he added, is whether both systems can coexist without turning rivalry into military confrontation.